{ "schema_version": 1, "history": "24m", "receiver_ids": [ "USGS-09468500", "USGS-09466500", "USGS-09439000", "USGS-09447000" ], "seeds": [ 20261017 ], "objective_labels": { "monthly_physical__gamma_zero": "Monthly flow \u00b7 physical objective \u00b7 Observed daily histories \u00b7 \u03b3 = 0", "monthly_physical__gamma_selected": "Monthly flow \u00b7 physical objective \u00b7 Balanced observed and CFS kernels \u00b7 earlier-selected \u03b3", "season_volume__gamma_zero": "Direct seasonal volume \u00b7 Observed daily histories \u00b7 \u03b3 = 0", "season_volume__gamma_selected": "Direct seasonal volume \u00b7 Balanced observed and CFS kernels \u00b7 earlier-selected \u03b3" }, "metric_labels": { "season_volume": "April\u2013July volume", "month_04": "April mean flow", "month_05": "May mean flow", "month_06": "June mean flow", "month_07": "July mean flow" }, "observed_truth_rule": "Every monthly mean requires all actual daily observations; April\u2013July volume requires all 122 observed days. Missing truth remains unscored.", "uncertainty_rule": "Historical-error ranges use strictly earlier out-of-fit errors through 2022 only. Annual 2026 has no earlier annual calibration years. These descriptive ranges do not guarantee coverage.", "seed_rule": "Ridge uses one fixed seed; no seed-spread estimate or extra independent forecast years are implied.", "flow_regime_rule": "Realized flow regimes are post-hoc descriptions: dry below the earlier-fitting 1/3 quantile, wet above its 2/3 quantile, and normal between or equal to the cutoffs. Each gage and monthly/volume target uses only complete truth from that job's permitted fitting seasons, with at least eight earlier seasons. Missing truth or insufficient earlier truth remains unknown. These are flow regimes, not rainfall classes, and are unavailable before the target is observed. Historical-error intervals retain unconditional earlier-year calibration; realized regime never chooses an interval.", "limitations": [ "This supplement checks feature-block dilution: K = Kobserved / Fobserved + \u03b3 \u00d7 Kforecast / Fforecast. Each observed day, channel, and mask remains a separate feature. Earlier selection seasons choose \u03b3 from 0, 0.1, 1, 10 and the original Ridge penalty grid. Target-year and later labels never select that forecast's weight or penalty; annual 2026 may use earlier 2025 labels.", "A forecast's target-year and later labels never select its settings or enter its fitting. The blocked 2025\u20132026 arm selects and fits using labels through 2024 only. Annual 2026 may use earlier 2025 labels for tuning and fitting, never 2026 labels. Reported recent scores remain descriptive and must not be used afterward to choose a preferred seed, objective, or input configuration.", "The \u03b3=0 controls must reproduce the corresponding completed matched-cohort observations-only Ridge baselines before this report is admitted.", "Both arms retain the same 1983\u20132026 cohort and prior-October initialized CFS archive. Weather predictors cover April\u2013June only; discharge targets cover April\u2013July. Original dissemination vintages are unverified.", "Historical evaluation is 2001\u20132022, validation 2023\u20132024, and retrospective review 2025\u20132026. The only separate annual update is 2026.", "The small sample of independent seasonal fitting years remains a limitation even after balancing kernel blocks." ], "rows": [ { "inputs": "gamma_selected", "arm": "gamma_selected", "refit": "annual", "objective": "monthly_physical__gamma_selected", "method": "ridge", "seed": 20261017, "station": "USGS-09468500", "year": 2026, "phase": "recent", "fitted_season_last": 2025, "selected_gamma": 0.0, "selected_alpha": 1.0, "metric": "month_04", "units": "ft\u00b3/s", "observed": 0.21066666666666667, "prediction": 10.930367665913991, "observation_count": 30, "expected_observations": 30, "lower80": null, "upper80": null, "lower90": null, "upper90": null, "calibration_n": 0, "calibration_last_year": null, "flow_regime": "dry", "regime_training_n": 42, "regime_lower_tercile": 4.845999999999999, "regime_upper_tercile": 16.577777777777776, "base_objective": "monthly_physical" }, { "inputs": "gamma_selected", "arm": "gamma_selected", "refit": "annual", 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