Forecast setup and interpretation

Model weights stay frozen within each outer evaluation block. Historical hindcasts through 2022, validation comparison in 2023–2024, and previously inspected 2025–2026 results remain separate. Recent errors do not select a preferred model or history. Missing truth stays missing; complete-month targets require every daily observation. Seasonal volume uses the actual number of days in each month.

Observed vs predicted

Scores for the selected period

January forecast seasonal volumes

Only complete April–July sets appear. Missing daily truth prevents an observed complete-season volume.

Download: Forecasts · Scores · Seasonal volumes