{ "schema_version": 1, "title": "Seasonal forecast inputs comparison", "comparison_kind": "matched_cfsv2", "history": "24m", "completed_jobs": 96, "receiver_ids": [ "USGS-09468500", "USGS-09466500", "USGS-09439000", "USGS-09447000" ], "seeds": [ 20261017, 20261018, 20261019 ], "fitting_cohort": [ 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "held_out_years": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "refit_years": { "blocked": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "annual": [ 2026 ] }, "feature_months": [ 4, 5, 6 ], "feature_count": 360, "native_grid_count": 12, "phases": { "historical": "2001\u20132022 \u00b7 historical evaluation", "validation": "2023\u20132024 \u00b7 validation", "recent": "2025\u20132026 \u00b7 retrospective review" }, "objective_labels": { "monthly_physical__observations": "Monthly flow \u00b7 physical objective \u00b7 Measured histories", "monthly_physical__observations_cfsv2": "Monthly flow \u00b7 physical objective \u00b7 Measured histories + October CFSv2", "season_volume__observations": "Direct seasonal volume \u00b7 Measured histories", "season_volume__observations_cfsv2": "Direct seasonal volume \u00b7 Measured histories + October CFSv2" }, "metric_labels": { "season_volume": "April\u2013July volume", "month_04": "April mean flow", "month_05": "May mean flow", "month_06": "June mean flow", "month_07": "July mean flow" }, "observed_truth_rule": "Every monthly target requires complete daily truth; seasonal volume requires all 122 observed days. Missing truth is unavailable, not zero.", "uncertainty_rule": "Blocked forecasts have nominal 80/90% historical-error ranges calibrated using strictly earlier held-out years through 2022 only, with at least eight finite earlier errors and a defined finite-sample order statistic. Coverage is descriptive and not guaranteed. The annual 2026 update has no earlier annual held-out errors, so its ranges remain unavailable.", "seed_rule": "Three fixed XGBoost seeds describe algorithmic variability only and do not create independent years or forecast uncertainty intervals.", "limitations": [ "Twenty-six blocked evaluation years and one annual-refit year are retrospective. The four nearby initialization cycles are a small dependent ensemble; their spread and three model seeds are not calibrated streamflow uncertainty. Source monthly GRIB time metadata is defective; conservative April-June forcing avoids unverified final-month coverage. Dense daily features versus few independent years limit interpretation of negative feature comparisons.", "Actual prior-October13 00/06/12/18UTC initializations precede January issuance. Hindcasts before operational CFSv2 are retrospective reforecasts. Historical dissemination vintages remain unverified, so this is an initialization-constrained retrospective experiment, not proof of exact operational as-of availability. The weather forecasts are older than the measured history ending December31.", "Both input cases fit exactly the same 1983-2026 seasons and use earlier-only scalers, a chronological three-year tuning tail, and fixed seeds. Five blocked outer folds evaluate 2001-2026; the extra annual2026 model may fit 2025 labels. Annual-refit effects are paired only for 2026. Added forecast columns use a separate earlier-issued training-only transform.", "A forecast's target-year and later labels never select its settings or enter its fitting. The blocked 2025\u20132026 arm selects and fits using labels through 2024 only. Annual 2026 may use earlier 2025 labels for tuning and fitting, never 2026 labels. Reported recent scores remain descriptive and must not be used afterward to choose a preferred seed, objective, or input configuration.", "Both input cases are fitted on the same 1983\u20132026 cohort; the completed earlier study is not an interchangeable control. Refitting effects are paired on 2026 only, the sole annual update.", "Weather predictors cover April\u2013June only; July weather is omitted uniformly because its complete native-month coverage is unresolved. The discharge response still covers all of April\u2013July.", "CFSv2 predictors are archived physical point/month/variable/distribution summaries across the four October 13 cycles, with explicit masks. The four runs are correlated initializations, not four independent climate outcomes. 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